With the midterms just a couple short months away, Trump has decided that it’s finally time to do some campaigning in between golf outings. Last week, he hopped a flight to South Carolina to stump for Lindsey Graham’s sister, who is trying to replace her brother in the US Senate. During Trump’s speech, he let out a new talking point in an effort to motivate the base.
“If we lose the midterms, I am going to be impeached,” Trump said.
And he is almost certainly correct. Never in our history have we had to endure this level of rampant corruption, so it stands to reason that a correction is coming, and likely soon. In almost every race, voters are asking for change, and candidates who represent that change are winning by big numbers. Meanwhile, Republicans in tight races are begging Trump not to make appearances in their districts, as he is more likely to hurt their chances than help.
And while Democrats are not yet using the word “impeachment” with any regularity, they are promising an almost endless list of investigations, and since Trump’s corruption is not even poorly hidden anymore, impeachment is the only possible conclusion to any inquiry Congress begins. Therefore, if Dems win in November, impeachment is a certainty.
But there is, I believe, a reasonable possibility that a twist is coming. While most Americans support impeachment (it polls at about 53% in favor, with only 37% opposed) most people believe that any attempt to impeach Trump will end as it did the previous two times it happened – the House successfully indicts only to see the Senate fail to reach the two-thirds vote necessary to convict. In the end, Trump walks.
Or maybe not. Let’s have a look at some interesting numbers, beginning with Trump’s approval rating. In 2019, during his first impeachment trial, his approval rating began at about 43%, then rose to 45% when the House voted to impeach him and then rose again to 49% when the Senate acquitted him. Even though he was clearly guilty, Impeachment was a net positive for him, which is why Dems are not speaking directly about it on the campaign trail, choosing instead to promise investigations even though most informed voters know the end game.
But this time around, Trump’s numbers are absolutely in the tank. He’s polling in the low 30s, and most analysts and political operators believe the floor is much lower, as Trump is beginning to look like he’ll drop into the 20s after announcing yet another trade war, this time with Canada, one of our largest and longest trade partners. With Americans already suffering immensely in Trump’s failed economy, the last thing any of us need is even higher prices. But that is exactly what we’re about to get.
Now, to address that twist I mentioned earlier. I believe it’s possible (not likely, but possible) that future impeachment efforts could be supported by the GOP. That support wouldn’t be universal, as there are too many cultists in our government for this, but there may be scenarios in which GOP leadership would engineer just enough republican votes to impeach. After all, the GOP plays the long game, and the death of Trumpism is looking more and more certain by the day. Trump is a political anchor, and he is certainly capable of dragging the GOP right to the bottom of the pool. And the risk might be great enough for GOP leadership to cut him loose and go looking for a new demagogue.
Again, I don’t believe this is going to happen, but I believe it could. And I think Trump believes it, too. Ater all, America’s sleepiest president is out campaigning when he’s not even on the ballot, something we all know he has no desire to do. And he’s talking impeachment, which is an attempt to fire up what’s left of his melting base. And while he’s talking about Democrats, it’s possible that it’s GOP betrayal that worries him most. And for political eggheads like me, there’s a growing question that is beginning to really pick up steam.
In November, could Americans deliver a blue wave large enough to separate the GOP from Trump? The smart money says no, but there’s at least a gambler’s chance it could happen, if you ask me.
Brett Pransky is a writer, a teacher, a father, and a husband, but rarely in that order. He spends his days amplifying the voices of freedom and democracy as an Editor right here at The Political Voices Network, and he spends his nights trying to fix the world one clever sentence at a time.